Summary of U.S. Real Unemployment – May 2011
by Leo Hindery, Jr., Chairman of the Economic Growth/Smart Globalization Initiative at the New America Foundation
Our Summary of U.S. Real Unemployment makes these three important adjustments. It also identifies average weeks unemployed, job openings, and the “Jobs Gap” that needs to be filled in order to be at full employment in real terms. As adjusted, in May:
- The number of real unemployed workers in all categories increased by 454,000 workers to 29.3 million, a figure which remains more than twice BLS’s official figure of 13.9 million. The private services sector increased by 80,000 jobs; government employment, mostly state and local, declined by 29,000 jobs, the seventh monthly decline in a row; and, most relevant during this prolonged economic recovery, the all-important manufacturing sector fell by 5,000 jobs, while construction employment was again essentially flat with no medium term uptick
- Thus, the real unemployment rate is 18.2%, compared to last month’s real unemployment rate of 18.0% and to BLS’s official rate for May of 9.1%.
- The number of real unemployed workers has increased by 12.6 million since the start of the Recession in December 2007, and since December 2008 by 4.7 million.
This post-Inauguration job-loss figure of 4.7 million and the Jobs Gap figure that follows are of significant political import as we approach the 2012 Elections. Over the last 80 years or so, the unemployment ‘hurdles’ that must be overcome, so to speak, in any quadrennial national election are a BLS official rate of no more than around 7.2% and, most telling, a real unemployment rate of no more than around 9.5% to 10.0%.
- The all-important Jobs Gap that must be filled is 21.3 million jobs. To put this figure – and the magnitude of its challenge – in perspective, the economy needs to add at least 150,000 (some say 200,000) new private sector jobs each month simply to keep up with population growth.
The average number of weeks unemployed is at least 39.7 and the number of workers unemployed a half year or longer is at least 10.8 million (i.e., BLS’s official figure of 6.2 mm plus the 4.6 mm discouraged workers). Each figure remains unprecedented in modern times, and when considered together, they are always a much better measure of the real employment condition than BLS’s weekly “initial jobless claims” number.
Compared to other nine recessions and recoveries since the Second World War, recovery from the Great Recession of 2007, which very much continues for millions of workers, especially for the long-time real unemployed, remains hindered by our nation’s large trade deficit in oil, the large and again growing manufacturing trade deficit with China, and federal tax policies that fail to incent job creation here at home.
[...] numbers have popped back up to 9.1%, but many believe the real unemployment number is closer to 18%. This is President Obama’s economy; yet to listen to his minions, everyone from Japan to evil [...]
Lesgislation should be emergency passed, as a matter of National Security, that only the unemployed be hired for any open payrolled position. That creates tax payers, instead of the Unemployment Insurance drain, and lack of spending in the economy. If you want to change the economy, hire the unemployed. It’s the only way to steer a sinking ship past this iceberg! This IS the contingency plan! Who’s in charge!?!
No matter the emergency actions taken with the society and social ‘order’ we have created with the allowance of free unbridled capitalism… disguised as ‘freedom’… this situation is like all other cultures that hit the wall of history: The only answer is change. But the form of that change has to be within the bounds of Constitution. Screw throwing money at the problem. How about the insurance and medical and more insurance and cost of equipment made in the U.S. I would love to employ 10 people! But the cost just to get set up to do so is so great that a sole propriety gets lost in debt before you begin and spend the rest of your life ON CREDIT! Fix that… and this nation will survive!
Joblessness in America – It’s not Obama’s fault!
It is naive to believe that the president can create jobs. That is the domain of big business (and small) – Not big government! America has been calling for a shrinking government, and many federal and state workers have been let go. If the president were to hire more government employees (because he doesn’t have the power to hire Americans in the private sector) isn’t that calling for an expansion of government again? not decreasing it. So people, please be thoughtful and intelligent about making such comments. Place the blame where it must and should lie – with the big banks, and huge corporations who refuse to hire, or make loans available to small and mid-sized companies who could hire the masses. Also, hire more English speaking Americans, and make it illegal for states, municipalities, and private companies to insist that Americans speak a foreign language to qualify for employment.Many job ads state, “Do not apply if you don’t speak fluent Spanish,” or “Spanish speaking preferred.” If you Don’t Speak Spanish, you don’t get the job, pure and simple.I’m prejudice against no one, but you won’t see English speaking only job requirements in Spain, Puerto Rico, Mexico, or South America. We abled bodied Americans should be asking, “Why are we compelled to speak languages other than English to get a job in America?
English speaking Americans need jobs too!