Summary of U.S. Real Unemployment – September 2011
by Leo Hindery, Jr., Chairman of the Economic Growth/Smart Globalization Initiative at the New America Foundation
Our Summary of U.S. Real Unemployment [attachment 2] makes these three important adjustments. The Summary also identifies average weeks unemployed, job openings, and the Real Jobs Gap that needs to be filled in order to be at full employment in real terms. As of September 30:
• The number of Real Unemployed Workers, in all categories, decreased by 95,000 workers to 29.2 million, a figure more than twice BLS’s official figure of 14.0 million. The combined professional and business services sector increased by 48,000 jobs; government employment declined by 34,000 jobs, the eleventh monthly decline in a row; construction employment increased by 26,000 jobs; and, most important by far into the long term, the all-important manufacturing sector lost another 13,000 jobs.
• The Real Unemployment Rate was 18.3%, compared to August’s Rate of 18.3% and BLS’s official rate for September of 9.1%.
• The Real Jobs Gap was 21.2 million jobs.
• The number of Real Unemployed Workers had increased by 12.5 million since the start of the Recession in December 2007, and by 4.6 million since the Inauguration.
The Real Unemployment Rate and Real Jobs Gap, together with the post-Inauguration job-loss figure, are critical statistics as we continue to approach the 2012 Election. Over the last 80 years or so, the unemployment-related ‘hurdles’ that must be overcome in any quadrennial national election are (i) a BLS official rate of unemployment of no more than, say, 7.2% (today it’s 9.1%) and (ii) a Real Unemployment Rate of no more than 9.5% to 10.0% (today it’s 18.3%).
Officially, per the BLS, the average number of weeks unemployed is 40.5 and the number of workers unemployed a half year or longer is 6.2 million. The reality, however, is that an estimated 8.5 million or so workers (around 30% of the Real Unemployed) have probably been out of full-time work for more than a year.
